Montana

Montana uses a bonus point system where each point you hold gives you one additional entry in the draw — more points mean more chances, but nothing is guaranteed. Bison is the exception, using a pure random draw with no points.

Our projections follow a two-step process. First, we fill in any missing point levels within each year's historical data by estimating between known values. Second, we compute a weighted average across five years (2021-2025), giving more weight to recent seasons: 45% for 2025, 25% for 2024, 15% for 2023, 10% for 2022, and 5% for 2021.

After averaging, we run a final check to make sure projected odds never decrease as points go up. This can occasionally happen when different point levels have different amounts of historical data behind them, and we correct it so the projections stay consistent with how the draw actually works.

Each projection carries a confidence rating (high, medium, or low) based on how many real data years went into it. Montana covers nine species: elk, mule deer, white-tailed deer, pronghorn, moose, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, bison, and wolf.